During the 2025 peak season, U.S. package deliveries are projected to increase by 5% to approximately 2.3 billion packages, primarily due to an additional shopping day. However, challenges such as tariff pressures and the end of de minimis could impact delivery activities. FedEx and Amazon are expected to see volume increases of 5% to 8%, while UPS and the U.S. Postal Service may experience flat growth. Concerns over rising prices may lead consumers to be more selective with purchases, influencing overall holiday sales. Some carriers might adapt by adjusting their delivery strategies to manage cost pressures.

Source: https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/2025-holiday-delivery-projections-fedex-ups-usps-amazon/802669/