Ground delivery costs are expected to decrease slightly in Q1 2025 despite recent rate hikes by major carriers like FedEx and UPS. The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index indicates that per-package ground delivery rates will be 28.2% higher than the January 2018 baseline, down from 28.8% in Q1 2024, largely due to ongoing shipping discounts. AFS Logistics describes the parcel market as facing low demand and fierce competition. While shippers retain negotiating power, the sustainability of these discounts is uncertain, and surcharges from carriers are affecting overall savings.

Source: https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/fedex-ups-cowen-afs-q1-2025-parcel-index/738057/